International breaks are the most detested part of English football’s hectic calendar; the bloody thunder and relentless drama of the top flight unwillingly swapped for notoriously drab Three Lions performances; and even more so when hosting friendlies rather than qualifiers.
And yet, friendlies ahead of major tournaments continue to be billed as an integral instrument for national managers, a chance to further evaluate their squads, their tactics and whether any rank outsiders can force their way into selection reckoning by the time the summer comes around.
But for the Three Lions particularly, there is a greater significance. Trapped in a cycle of easing through qualifying groups packed with uncompetitive opposition before coming unstuck against heavyweights at the tournament itself, friendlies represent a rare opportunity for England to test themselves against the calibre of teams that usually eliminate them.
That’s exactly why England face reigning world champions Germany on Friday, followed by five-time World Cup winners Brazil on Tuesday. England know they struggle eke out wins against European minnows, but there’s a feeling the dynamic nature of the personnel could see them fare significantly better against the kind of sides that will allow them more space on the counter-attack. That’s the hope, anyway.
Perhaps the resulting question for fans then, is what can we expect to learn international friendlies and whether they’re worth our Friday and Tuesday night viewing. Do warm-up friendlies ever tell us anything about England’s chances for the associated tournament, or are they little more than an FA money-spinner occasionally filling fans with false hope? Is there any correlation between England’s friendly results and tournament success, or should we pay them no attention at all?
The top ranking on the warm-up friendly mini-table is incredibly telling; England took five wins from seven friendlies heading into the Euro 2016, the most they’ve scheduled ahead of a European Championship campaign this millenium, including a shock 3-2 win over Die Mannschaft that created a ripple of genuine optimism.
But the tournament ended with arguably the most humiliating result in the national team’s history and Roy Hodgson’s immediate resignation; clearly, the seemingly thorough preparation didn’t have the desired effect. Likewise, England picked up just one win in five games in ahead of Euro 2004, ironically against Iceland, yet still recorded their second-highest finish to date at the European championship that summer.
That being said, there is somewhat of a pattern in that England’s best World Cup finish from the last three tournaments, the quarter-finals of 2006, immediately followed a series of friendlies that produced a perfect record of four wins from four, not to mention a supremely healthy goal difference of +10. They faced some decent opposition in those games as well, chiefly arch-rivals Argentina and a Uruguay side that would reach the playoffs of the following World Cup four years later.
Similarly, England’s worst tournament finish from the last six, the Group Stages of the 2014 World Cup, came after a warm-up campaign that saw England win just two games from six, also drawing two and losing two, with a goal difference of a mere +1. Even failing to score against Honduras during those games, while being dealt defeats by Chile and Germany, the warning signs were already there for England’s lack of progress in the tournament.
But in truth, this can never be a genuine science because there are simply too many variables; the quality of the Three Lions squads at the time, the competitiveness and motivation of the opposition, the number of players made unavailable through injury. That’s exactly why Gareth Southgate will be so frustrated heading into the next two games; six players, all but one of whom started the last round of Premier League fixtures and at least five of whom will be in England’s first XI next summer, have all pulled out of the latest squad for the biggest tests the Three Lions have faced in 18 months – and the biggest indicators of how they’ll fare at the World Cup in Russia.
In some senses though, Harry Winks, Dele Alli, Harry Kane, Raheem Sterling, Jordan Henderson and Fabian Delph withdrawing themselves through injury is arguably justified by the lack of correlation. Why endure the extra burden of international friendlies, when they historically have such minimal impact on England’s successes when the tournaments come around? Of course, the result is never the ultimate motivation behind friendlies – but if the objective isn’t to win, how much can these players be expected to exert themselves anyway, just before the most hectic period of the Premier League schedule?
In any case, the warm-up friendly mini-league serves as a timely reminder to England fans; beating Germany and Brazil doesn’t give England any more or any less of a chance of upsetting the odds at next summer’s World Cup.